Rainfall intensity duration frequency curve statistical analysis and modeling for Patna, Bihar

Abstract

Using data from 41 years in Patna’ India’ the study’s goal is to analyze the trends of how often it rains on a weekly, seasonal, and annual basis (1981−2020). First, utilizing the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve and the relationship by statistically analyzing rainfall’ the historical rainfall data set for Patna’ India’ during a 41 year period (1981−2020), was evaluated for its quality. Changes in the hydrologic cycle as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions are expected to induce variations in the intensity, length, and frequency of precipitation events. One strategy to lessen vulnerability is to quantify probable changes and adapt to them. Techniques such as log-normal, normal, and Gumbel are used (EV-I). Distributions were created with durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, and 24 h and return times of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 100 years. There were also mathematical correlations discovered between rainfall and recurrence interval.

Findings: Based on findings, the Gumbel approach produced the highest intensity values, whereas the other approaches produced values that were close to each other. The data indicates that 461.9 mm of rain fell during the monsoon season’s 301st week. However, it was found that the 29th week had the greatest average rainfall, 92.6 mm. With 952.6 mm on average, the monsoon season saw the highest rainfall. Calculations revealed that the yearly rainfall averaged 1171.1 mm. Using Weibull’s method, the study was subsequently expanded to examine rainfall distribution at different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, and 25 years. Rainfall and recurrence interval mathematical correlations were also developed. Further regression analysis revealed that short wave irrigation, wind direction, wind speed, pressure, relative humidity, and temperature all had a substantial influence on rainfall.

Originality and value: The results of the rainfall IDF curves can provide useful information to policymakers in making appropriate decisions in managing and minimizing floods in the study area.