Demographic dividends and indices of socio-economic progress of India

Abstract

Economic and social transformations of a country depend heavily on population age structure and its growth dynamics along with the impact on policies adopted and the generation of opportunities. The paper describes major socio-economic-demographic consequences of India based on changing demography with emphasis on measurement aspects of demographic dividends (DV) and suggests indices like active participation index (API), comprehensive e-participation index (CEPI), and index of participation rate of females (IFLFPR) combining relevant chosen indicators in ratio or ordinal scales. The proposed indices reflecting the social, economic, and political effectiveness of the country across time and space satisfy desired properties and enable parametric statistical analysis. The linear regression equation of IFLFPR on the gross domestic product (GDP) of a country and the regression of DV on IFLFPR show effect of female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) on socio-economic growth. A country needs to focus on the factors that can foster the progress during the transition from favorable workingage population (WAP) to an increasing share of elderly population. WAP of India with a rising trend of income and educational attainments empowers the citizens to participate in e-participation and active participation in the economic, social, and political effectiveness of the country. Attempts can be made to estimate the required net birth rate, ensuring WAP is around 59%, and initiate policies accordingly.